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More from "Locus Online Perspectives » Cory Doctorow: A Voca..."
Take away these trivial predictions and the number of genuine predictions – as opposed to inventions, such as Clarke’s geostationary orbits; or inspirations, such as Paul Krugman’s Foundation-inspired career in economics – from the literature underperforms a random-number generator.
It’s not just science fiction writers. The false belief in the predictive acumen of small groups of esoteric professionals is a recurring error in our society. Money managers, for example, almost never perform better than the market (and often underperform a straightforward index fund), but have a similar (and similarly undeserved) reputation as pickers of future winners.
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clausd
29 days
ago
